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Let’s think some of the “hard truths” about the publishing industry.

If you’re at all serious about publishing, either self-publishing or not, you indubitably need to be aware of some basic statistics about the industry. They aren’t pretty and may tend to be discouraging. But would you rather jump into these treacherous waters with a head full of platitudes and myths…or with a clear-eyed view of how things indubitably are?

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I think you are far best off comprehension what’s indubitably going on and what you, as an author and would-be self-publisher, are indubitably up against.

So, without added belaboring the point, here goes.

Book publishing in the U.S. Has exploded over the past few years. Here are the amount of new English-language titles published per year in the U.S., as reported by R. R. Bowker (the keeper or U.S. Isbns and publisher of Books-in-Print):

195,000 titles in 2004
295,000 in 2006 (a 51% growth in two years)
411,000 in 2007 (a 39% growth in only one year)

In 2004, there were just under one million books in print (new and backlist). Last year, there were approximately three million in print. Offset printing (the original method using the large roll- or sheet-fed printing equipment that is cost-effective for larger print runs only) accounted for only about 1% of the 411,000 new titles printed in 2007; the rest were printed using digital printing technology (print-on-demand) that is only cost-effective for short print runs.

Why do you suppose the amount of new titles more than doubled in three years? Can you spell subsidy publishing (in the guise of the plethora of self-proclaimed “self-publishing companies”)?

Three decades ago, there were only 357 publishers with books listed in Books-in-Print. Today, there are only six major (New York) publishers, maybe 400 mid-size publishers, and approximately 100,000 small publishers (which includes the large amount of self-publishers). More than 10,000 new (mostly small) publishers go into business each year. Of course, many of those small publishers fail every year, too, but that’s tasteless in most businesses (lots of new start-ups quickly fail).

The six major New York publishers are Random House, Penguin Putnam, HarperCollins, Holtzbrinck, Hachette (formerly Time Warner Books), and Simon & Schuster. Of those, only Simon & Schuster is still American-owned. Every wonder why more and more foreign authors are being published by major “American” publishers?

Now that you know how many new titles are published and how many publishers are publishing them, you might wonder how many are being sold? That is a far more difficult query to reply reliably, since publishers are notorious for overstating actual book sales. However, we can turn again to Bowker for some statistics:

93% of All titles sell less than 1,000 copies
widespread median sales for All titles is about 500 copies
7% of titles list for 87% of sales (mostly from the big Ny publishers)

So, where are those books indubitably sold? If you guessed mostly in bookstores, guess again. Here’s the breakdown (the ranges are because it depends on what source you rely on):

Chain bookstores list for 25-33%
Independent bookstores (including used book stores) list for 3-10%
Online book retailers list for 21% (almost all Amazon.com)

That means 36-52% of all book sales come from non-bookstore outlets. What’s a non-bookstore outlet? Gift shops, grocery stores, drug stores, “big box” market (Wal-Mart, Costco, etc.), book clubs, back-of-the-room sales, direct-to-consumer sales, and on and on. The opportunities are tiny only by your imagination and marketing efforts.

You can select to self-publish and compete in the bookstores for that 28-43% of the total market, which means you’re competitive against Random House, Simon & Schuster et al who can afford to buy those end-cap and front window display locations. Or you can select to compete primarily in the online and non-bookstore markets that record the remaining.

The option is yours and should be driven by your detailed marketing plan for your book. You do have a detailed marketing plan, right? Trying to sell books without a marketing plan is like taking a long trip into unknown territory without a map — you might reach your destination but the odds are against you.

If you don’t indubitably know where you’re going, how will you know when you get there? Or when you’re way off course?

The "Hard Truths" About Book Publishing

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